Barisan Nasional’s (BN) landslide victory in the Johor state election was driven by Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s growing popularity and open support from PAS, according to political analysts.
Asrul Sani of Asia Group said Onn Hafiz’s profile has continued to rise since becoming Johor menteri besar in March 2022, and the decisive election result is expected to strengthen his position within Umno.
He said the victory could boost confidence among party members who favour Umno contesting elections independently rather than in cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Weak opposition also contributed to BN’s success
James Chin of the University of Tasmania said BN also benefited from the absence of a strong and united Malay-Muslim challenger, following internal divisions within Perikatan Nasional (PN).
According to Chin, Bersatu had already been weakened before the election, while PAS ended its political cooperation with the party last month and openly urged its supporters to back BN in seats not contested by PN.
He said Onn Hafiz’s popularity played an important role, but BN’s success was also due to the lack of a credible opposition.
‘Many people credit Onn as the main reason for Umno’s landslide victory, but the truth is more nuanced. While Onn’s personal popularity certainly helped, the bigger factor was that Umno barely faced any real opposition.
‘With no credible Malay-Muslim challenger in the ring, and bolstered by Onn Hafiz’s strong appeal, Umno was virtually unstoppable,’ he said.
BN is on course to win more seats than the 40 it secured in the 2022 Johor state election, while PH is expected to win only eight seats. Both coalitions contested all 56 state assembly seats.
Focus shifts to Negeri Sembilan
Asrul said the active participation of Khairy Jamaluddin and Hishammuddin Hussein during the campaign also reflected their renewed role within Umno after returning to the party under its ‘Rumah Bangsa’ initiative.
He said BN’s next challenge would be sustaining its momentum in the Negeri Sembilan state election next month.
‘A strong result there would add more pressure to the Umno-PH relationship, and that is what Zahid and PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim will need to manage carefully at the federal level,’ he said.
BN and PH are partners in the federal unity government, together with parties from East Malaysia and other coalition partners.
