An analyst has played down the significance of the two additional seats allocated to MCA for the Melaka state election, saying DAP is expected to retain its two Chinese-majority strongholds.
Sunway University political analyst Wong Chin Huat said MCA had no strategic advantage in Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, as its alliance with Perikatan Nasional (PN), led by PAS, could discourage Chinese voters from supporting the party.
He said the partnership with PN and PAS remained the main obstacle to MCA making inroads in Chinese-majority constituencies.
“It has no chance at competing with DAP. (The partnership with) PN and PAS is the main obstacle to MCA victories in the Chinese-majority areas,” he told FMT.
Wong said MCA risked being seen as merely benefiting from the Barisan Nasional (BN)-PN alliance rather than genuinely representing the community it sought to serve.
MCA’s shrinking electoral presence
He pointed out that MCA had reduced the number of seats it was contesting from seven in the 2021 Melaka state election to four this time, while the number of direct contests against DAP had also fallen from four to two.
Wong said this trend could continue in other states and at the 16th general election (GE16).
He said MCA might receive some consolation through appointed assemblymen’s positions, but such appointments would not give the party the political mandate needed to oppose policies or decisions detrimental to the Chinese and non-Malay communities.
“Without the mandate of the voters, it has no political capital to reject policies or moves detrimental to the Chinese or non-Malay communities.
“It will only go on to be rejected even more by Chinese voters,” he said.
MCA was initially allocated Kelebang and Machap Jaya, the two seats it won in the 2021 election.
However, following protests and discussions with the BN and PN leadership, the party secured two additional seats – Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.
Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh said the BN-PN alliance had agreed to allocate the two seats to MCA based on their winnability.
Both constituencies fall under the DAP-held Kota Melaka parliamentary constituency. As of 2022, Chinese voters accounted for more than 70% of its electorate, while Malays made up less than 20%.
MCA-DAP contests to test voter sentiment
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said the contests between MCA and DAP would provide an indication of whether Chinese voters were becoming fatigued with DAP.
He said a united Malay vote, coupled with possible Chinese voter fatigue, could shift the balance in MCA’s favour in Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.
He said such voter fatigue could be reflected in lower turnout or Chinese voters choosing to support MCA instead.
Fauzi cited the Johor state election in July, when MCA won eight state seats, including three previously held by DAP.
He said the results suggested that some Chinese voters were becoming dissatisfied with DAP, arguing that the party’s presence in government had not necessarily produced significantly different outcomes compared with its time in the opposition.
“In such a situation, they’re better off voting for a coalition that has a shot at leading the federal government after GE16,” he said.
