Almost five years after the last Melaka state election, political alignments are being reassessed, with former rivals weighing whether cooperation could offer greater electoral strength than contesting separately.
With Barisan Nasional (BN) preparing to hold talks with two political groups, analysts said the calculations behind any potential partnership would go beyond the number of votes secured in the previous election.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian said Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) appeared to be the two main possibilities, although BN could also negotiate directly with PAS.
‘The negotiations will be shaped by three considerations: seat allocation, the ability to attract additional voters and the political cost of compromising with a former rival,’ he said.
Sivamurugan said a BN-PAS arrangement could strengthen Malay-Muslim support, while a BN-PH pact could broaden support across communities.
He said the political upheaval of 2021 would remain a factor, but current electoral interests were likely to carry greater weight.
2021 experience remains a factor
In October 2021, PH accepted former Umno assemblymen Idris Haron and Nor Azman Hassan after they withdrew their support for the BN-led state government.
Their withdrawal triggered an early state election the following month.
Both subsequently lost, while PKR suffered a complete wipeout after losing all 11 seats it contested.
BN eventually won 21 of Melaka’s 28 seats in the 2021 state election, while PH secured five and PN two.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the events of 2021 made voter transferability particularly important when assessing possible political combinations.
A BN-PAS arrangement could prevent Malay votes from being split, he said, while a BN-PH combination could bring together BN’s Malay support with PH’s stronger urban and non-Malay base.
However, Tawfik said neither combination represented straightforward electoral arithmetic.
A BN-PAS arrangement could unsettle sections of BN’s grassroots, while direct BN-PH cooperation could face resistance, particularly in traditional Umno areas.
‘BN and PH do not necessarily need a formal electoral pact or joint campaigning,’ Tawfik said, adding that both could contest separately and cooperate after the election if they collectively secured a majority.
Seat allocation could determine alliances
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said PAS, rather than PN as a whole, was more likely to negotiate with BN.
He said a BN-PAS arrangement could be electorally beneficial, particularly by reducing competition for Malay votes, but seat demands could become a sticking point.
‘There is still a possibility that BN will work with PH if PAS demands more than seven seats, which Umno cannot just give in to because those are their seats,’ he said.
UiTM analyst C. Sara said any electoral arrangement should ultimately be assessed based on seats, taking into account seat allocation, vote transferability and the impact of three- or four-cornered contests.
‘The 2021 result should not be treated as a 2026 forecast.’
In a 28-seat first-past-the-post contest, she said constituency-level vote distribution could matter more than simply comparing statewide vote shares.
