Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected to seek at least half of the 28 state seats in the next Melaka election, although analysts are divided over whether the coalition has sufficient leverage to secure such a deal.
Political analyst Syaza Shukri said PN’s bargaining position would be largely based on its victory in three of Melaka’s parliamentary constituencies in the 2022 general election.
Barisan Nasional (BN), however, also has a strong negotiating position after winning 20 of the state’s 28 seats in the previous Melaka election, despite failing to secure any parliamentary seats in the 2022 general election.
PN expected to seek larger share of seats
Syaza of the International Islamic University Malaysia said BN and PN are more likely to negotiate a near-equal seat distribution in Melaka than the arrangement seen in the recent Negeri Sembilan election.
In Negeri Sembilan, BN contested 25 seats while leaving the remaining 11 to PN to avoid multi-cornered contests.
She said a formula closer to a 14-14 split was more likely in Melaka, as PN would not want to be treated as a junior partner following its growing electoral strength.
“PN has shown that it has been gaining strength since the last Melaka election, so it will not want to be treated as a junior partner in this pact,” she said.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang recently said the BN-PN cooperation model for Melaka could differ from that used in Negeri Sembilan, although he noted that any arrangement would depend on local political developments.
Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh later said BN was open to exploring cooperation with any party under a BN-Plus formula, while stressing that any agreement would depend on the respective strengths of the parties involved.
Bersatu won the Masjid Tanah parliamentary seat in the 2022 general election, while PAS captured Tangga Batu and Jasin. Together, the three parliamentary constituencies comprise 14 state seats.
Bersatu has since fallen out with PAS and is not expected to contest under the PN banner despite remaining a component party of the coalition.
PAS also announced in April that it intends to contest 16 state seats in Melaka, including Tanjung Bidara, which is currently represented by Rauf.
Analysts differ on PN’s bargaining power
Universiti Malaya analyst Tawfik Yaakub said PN’s control of three parliamentary seats strengthens its bargaining position but does not automatically entitle it to half of the state seats.
He argued that success in parliamentary constituencies does not necessarily translate into entitlement at the state level.
At the same time, Tawfik said BN could not afford to dismiss PN as a minor partner after losing three parliamentary seats to the coalition.
He added that differences in voter turnout, candidate preferences and voting considerations often produce different outcomes in parliamentary and state elections.
According to Tawfik, BN’s position is strengthened by its control of the Melaka state government, its network of incumbents and its recent victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
Winnability should guide seat allocation
Tawfik said incumbency could serve as a starting point in negotiations but should not be the sole criterion for allocating seats.
Instead, he said discussions should also consider recent election results, polling district performance, local political realities, party machinery, candidate suitability, grassroots support and vote transferability between BN and PN supporters.
He argued that such a hybrid approach would allow BN to retain most of its strongholds while giving PN several genuinely winnable constituencies.
“Winnability, not numerical parity, should ultimately determine seat allocation,” he said.
Akademi Nusantara analyst Azmi Hassan also expects negotiations to be difficult, saying neither PN’s parliamentary gains nor BN’s state-level dominance alone would provide a sufficient basis for a seat-sharing agreement.
He believes Umno and its BN partners will insist on retaining the 20 seats they currently hold, leaving the remaining eight seats to be divided among PN’s component parties.
Should negotiations fail, Syaza said BN could explore cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH), noting that PH continues to hold five state seats and three parliamentary constituencies in Melaka.
Azmi added that such an arrangement could also work to PH’s advantage.
