Barisan Nasional’s (BN) prospects in the Johor state election may have been weakened by claims that a strong victory would reflect public support for former prime minister Najib Razak’s pardon and release, according to political analysts.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali described the remarks by Najib’s son, Nazifuddin, as a serious campaign miscalculation that could motivate more voters to oppose BN.
Fauzi said Nazifuddin may have believed the statement would strengthen BN’s support, but argued that the message was likely to appeal only to Malay voters who already backed the Umno-led coalition.
“What was supposed to be a stroll in the park for BN has now been transformed into a difficult climb up a mountain through hazardous terrain,” he said.
He added that the campaign had become overly centred on one individual at a time when some voters were already expressing frustration over Malaysia’s political landscape.
According to Fauzi, this could encourage dissatisfied voters to reject BN as a form of protest against what he described as Umno’s neo-feudal political culture.
Opposition could benefit from the issue
Mazlan said the controversy could encourage higher voter turnout among non-Malay voters, particularly the Chinese community, as well as middle-class Malays and outstation voters who might otherwise have stayed away from the polls.
Although several BN leaders have sought to distance the coalition from Nazifuddin’s remarks, Mazlan said the issue has provided political rivals with an opportunity to portray Umno as defending corruption, given Najib’s conviction and imprisonment.
He said many Chinese voters, middle-class Malays and Indians would find it difficult to accept calls for the release of someone convicted of corruption, potentially increasing support for Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Fauzi shared the view that the issue could hurt BN but said some Malay voters who reject both Najib’s pardon campaign and PH could instead shift their support to Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Leaders reject link between polls and pardon
Last Friday, Nazifuddin said a decisive BN victory in Johor would indicate continued public support for Najib and reflect hopes that he would receive a royal pardon.
BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, deputy chairman Mohamad Hasan and Umno information chief Azalina Othman Said later rejected the suggestion, stressing that the Johor election had no connection with Najib’s pardon because it was the King’s prerogative.
Meanwhile, PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim claimed the state election had been driven by “certain parties” seeking a return to power to secure Najib’s release, in an apparent reference to Umno and BN.
Anwar also questioned the need for an early state election, saying those parties believed they could rebuild political momentum and restore their previous dominance, including at the federal level.
Najib, 72, is serving a six-year prison sentence in the SRC International case and is scheduled to complete the sentence on Aug 23, 2028.
He has also been convicted by the High Court on charges of abuse of power and money laundering linked to 1MDB, receiving a 15-year prison sentence that will begin after the completion of his current jail term. He has appealed against that conviction.
Fauzi said PH would seek to consolidate support among non-Malay voters in an effort to deny BN a two-thirds majority in the Johor state assembly.
He added that PH would also be relying on outstation voters to return, similar to the 2022 general election, when the coalition won 13 parliamentary seats in Johor compared with BN’s nine despite losing the state election six months earlier.
However, Fauzi said a PH victory in the Johor state election remained unlikely.
