Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) remain locked in a tight contest ahead of the Negeri Sembilan state election, with PH leading the popular vote while BN holds more clear-cut seat advantages, according to the latest forecast by Vodus Research.
The survey projects PH securing 42 per cent of the statewide popular vote, followed by BN with 35 per cent and Perikatan Nasional (PN) with seven per cent.
Independent candidates account for two per cent of voter support, while 14 per cent of respondents remain undecided.
Vodus Research founder Kelvin Goh said the current projection gives PH 17 seats, BN 15 seats and PN two seats, with two additional BN-PH contests still too close to call.
“While BN holds 15 clear leads compared with PH’s nine, PH is currently ahead in eight of the 10 closely contested seats, raising its projected total to 17.
“This remains a very close race. BN has more clear leads, but PH holds a slight advantage once closely contested seats are included.
“This means the final result could still go either way, and a hung assembly cannot be ruled out. Ultimately, campaign performance, turnout and how parties manage the close-seat battleground will determine who reaches 19 seats,” he said.
A simple majority requires 19 of the 36 seats, meaning neither PH nor BN is currently projected to secure enough seats to form the state government on its own.
Key factors likely to shape outcome
Kelvin said the final result would depend on three key factors.
These include BN’s ability to retain Malay support amid competition from Bersatu and other alternatives, PH’s success in maintaining its backing among Chinese and other voters while improving turnout, and how both coalitions perform in closely contested constituencies where small swings in votes could prove decisive.
He also said BN’s strongest advantage lies in its net trust rating.
According to the survey, BN recorded a net trust score of 45 per cent, more than double PH’s 19 per cent, while PN trailed at five per cent.
“The findings suggest BN has a clearer advantage when voters weigh confidence against distrust in a party’s ability to manage Negeri Sembilan,” he said.
Leadership ratings also featured in the survey, with Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun recording a favourability rating of 32 per cent, compared with the 58 per cent achieved by Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi in Vodus Research’s earlier Johor election survey.
Cost of living remains top voter concern
The survey found differing levels of support across ethnic groups.
Among Bumiputera voters, BN led with 41 per cent, followed by PH at 27 per cent and PN at 25 per cent.
Among Chinese voters, PH secured 59 per cent support, ahead of BN at 20 per cent and PN at nine per cent.
Among other voters, PH led with 42 per cent, followed by BN at 32 per cent and PN at 21 per cent.
Cost of living emerged as the biggest concern, with 55 per cent of respondents listing it among their top three issues.
This was followed by jobs and wages at 34 per cent, housing affordability at 26 per cent, and corruption and governance at 24 per cent.
Other concerns included state economic development, safety and crime, religious and racial harmony, education, local council services and candidate quality.
The survey also identified a sizeable group of undecided voters, with about 70 per cent saying they were completely or fairly certain of their voting choice, while 30 per cent remained open to changing their minds.
Turnout intentions were lower than in previous elections, with 71 per cent saying they were likely or very likely to vote. However, only 51 per cent placed themselves in the highest “very likely” category.
“Among those at risk of not voting, travel or being outside Negeri Sembilan is the most common barrier, followed by inconvenience, work commitments and living outside the voting area,” Kelvin said.
The survey was conducted among 437 registered Negeri Sembilan voters between July 9 and July 21.
