As discussions intensify over the possibility of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) contesting separately in the next general election, analysts are questioning whether either coalition can realistically form the federal government on its own.
International Islamic University Malaysia analyst Syaza Shukri said neither PH nor BN currently appears capable of independently securing enough parliamentary seats to cross the threshold required to form the government.
According to her, BN could potentially gain some seats, possibly at the expense of Bersatu and PKR, while PH may face declining support in several areas.
“My very basic analysis suggests BN might gain some seats, possibly from Bersatu and PKR, while PH could lose ground,” she said.
She added that parties within PH, especially DAP, could experience some erosion in support, while PKR may face a steeper decline.
Despite any possible gains, Syaza said BN would still require cooperation from other parties to form a government.
Possible post-election alignments
Syaza also outlined a possible post-election scenario in which BN, even with around 30 seats, could align with Perikatan Nasional (PN), which she estimated might secure about 60 seats.
Such cooperation, together with support from East Malaysian blocs such as GPS and GRS, could potentially create an alternative governing coalition.
“In that kind of configuration, it would arguably make more sense politically, particularly as a Malay-based government,” she said.
The prospect of PH and BN contesting separately despite being partners in the unity government has also raised concerns about vote-splitting and fragmented electoral outcomes.
Analysts warned that while both coalitions may wish to test their individual strength, separate contests could weaken both sides and create opportunities for rival alignments to gain power.
Pressure builds for possible early election
Political observer Murray Hunter said Umno was already making extensive preparations for elections, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to consider calling an early general election.
According to him, such a move could potentially happen within the next few months.
Last week, Anwar said a snap general election could be called if divisions within the unity government continue to widen.
At the same time, former ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad announced that they were taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia after resigning from PKR.
Analysts expect PH-BN cooperation to continue
Academy Nusantara analyst Azmi Hassan, however, believes political realities after GE16 would likely force PH and BN to cooperate again regardless of their election strategies.
He said no single coalition or party currently possesses enough strength to govern independently under Malaysia’s political landscape.
“No party will form the federal government without cooperation. PH and BN know that they need each other,” he said.
Azmi noted that Malaysia’s political system has increasingly normalised post-election negotiations, with governing coalitions often formalised only after election results are known.
“Uniquely in Malaysia, any formation of a new government will take place after the general election results,” he said.
He added that PH and BN already appeared to share a “loose understanding” despite their public positioning ahead of the election.
“At the end of GE16, PH and BN will continue leading the government,” he said.
Analysts said the possibility of both coalitions contesting separately while maintaining informal post-election cooperation reflects a strategy aimed at preserving support from their respective voter bases while keeping future political options open.
However, they cautioned that going solo also carries significant risks, particularly the possibility of vote-splitting and unexpected shifts in political power.
