Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces a tough battle to retain control of Penang amid a potential BN-PN challenge, with two political scientists warning that the coalition should focus on a people-centric agenda rather than seek to increase its majority in the state assembly.
Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University and Azmil Taib of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PH should prepare for possible losses, particularly in Malay-majority constituencies.
Wong said Bayan Lepas and Batu Maung could be vulnerable to the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) alliance.
Malay voters account for 63.6% of the electorate in Bayan Lepas and 53.1% in Batu Maung.
Amanah’s Azrul Mahathir Aziz is the incumbent assemblyman for Bayan Lepas, while PKR’s Mohamad Abdul Hamid holds Batu Maung.
PH could still retain a comfortable majority
Wong said that even if PH lost both seats, it would still hold 25 of the 40 seats in the Penang state assembly, giving it a comfortable majority, although short of the two-thirds threshold.
However, he said preventing further losses would depend on strong turnout among non-Malay voters, particularly Chinese voters, in support of PH.
“PH may lose more seats if its core supporters abstain from voting or switch to BN-PN, as they did in Johor,” Wong told FMT.
Penang chief minister Chow Kon Yeow warned last Sunday that cooperation between BN and PN could pose a threat to DAP in the state.
DAP, the lynchpin of PH in Penang, currently holds 19 state seats. PKR has seven seats and Amanah one, giving the coalition a two-thirds majority.
PAS holds seven seats and Bersatu four, while the remaining two seats are held by BN assemblymen who are currently cooperating with PH under the unity government arrangement.
Of Penang’s 40 state seats, 15 are Malay-majority constituencies.
Wong said the BN-PN narrative of Malay unity could have considerable influence among Penang’s Malay voters, who are generally more responsive to ethno-religious mobilisation.
Economic progress alone may not be enough
Azmil said PH could no longer rely solely on its economic achievements to secure voter support in Penang.
He said campaigning on economic progress would be particularly ineffective if the benefits were perceived to be unevenly distributed.
Azmil pointed to unchecked development in some areas and limited progress in others, saying this had widened the gap between the haves and have-nots.
He also said the outcome of the Negeri Sembilan election showed that the previous government’s economic achievements had little bearing on the Malay vote.
PH lost control of the state to the BN-PN alliance in the Aug 1 election.
“PH must now focus on consolidating and energising its support base to maximise turnout come election time. We saw many disillusioned PH supporters abstain from voting, especially among non-Malays,” he said.
Wong said the assumption that voters were primarily concerned about the economy was only partly true.
“There is no guarantee that managing the economy well will ensure a government’s re-election,” he said.
“Some voters have long made up their minds to reject PH and DAP, no matter how well the state government manages the economy.”
Focus on bread-and-butter issues
Despite the challenges, Wong and Azmil said the battle for Penang was not lost.
They urged Penang PH to focus on equality, social justice, public well-being, affordability and other bread-and-butter issues to avoid alienating its voter base and fence-sitters.
Wong also said PH needed to address the culture war that the BN-PN alliance was likely to exploit to consolidate Malay support.
“Such issues must be handled with extreme care so that the state government is not seen as doing nothing,” he said.
