As the Sabah state assembly elections draw nearer, the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition, under the leadership of Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, is gaining a clear advantage, according to analysis from an independent think tank.
Ilham Centre CEO Hisommudin Bakar revealed that a recent study indicates GRS enjoys steady backing across much of the state. The research highlights that voters are primarily attracted to candidates with charismatic profiles and parties wielding substantial influence—areas where GRS holds a distinct lead.
In an interview with FMT, Hisommudin emphasized GRS’s robust popularity in Kadazandusun-Murut (KDM) and Bumiputera-Muslim strongholds. He noted that opposition parties like Warisan and Barisan Nasional (BN), which had previously governed Sabah, face steep challenges in penetrating these districts. “GRS benefits from its incumbency and the seasoned stature of its leaders,” he explained.
Warisan retains a solid foothold only along Sabah’s east coast, while BN and its Umno component continue to grapple with rebuilding grassroots loyalty amid persistent internal rifts. The survey, which drew on focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and participatory observations, further revealed that younger voters view BN as a shadow of its former powerhouse self.
Pakatan Harapan (PH), which has forged distinct alliances with both GRS and BN, maintains a firm grip in urban areas dominated by Chinese voters, positioning the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) for gains. “Although Chinese voters remain sharply critical of DAP and PH, they lack viable alternatives,” Hisommudin observed.
Conversely, Perikatan Nasional (PN) suffered a devastating setback in Sabah following the exodus of Bersatu elected representatives in December 2022, who defected en masse to join GRS. Today, PN’s foothold rests almost entirely on Bersatu vice-president Ronald Kiandee, the six-term Member of Parliament for Beluran.
Compounding PN’s woes is the widespread Sabah perception of its PAS component as an unwelcome import, tarnishing the coalition’s local appeal.
Multi-Cornered Fights and the ‘Black Wave’ Threat
Hisommudin anticipates fierce multi-way battles, with GRS pitted against BN and Warisan—both opting to contest independently—alongside Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (PKDM). A surge of independent candidates is also expected to enter the fray.
He described the emerging “Black Wave” of independents as a direct assault on the hegemony of established parties. “This strategy risks fragmenting the vote decisively, potentially yielding razor-thin margins in closely contested seats,” he warned.
The Ilham Centre study also uncovered significant indecision among younger voters aged 18 to 39, who comprise roughly 20% of the electorate. “A substantial share remains uncommitted,” Hisommudin said. “Securing this demographic poses the paramount hurdle for every contender. Candidates who authentically channel youth aspirations and project a revitalized political persona stand to gain the most.”
The contest for these pivotal votes is poised to unfold primarily on social media platforms, where parties will vie to stir emotions and sway sentiments in the run-up to election day.
The current Sabah state assembly’s term concludes on November 11, unless dissolved prematurely, triggering polls within 60 days thereafter.
