New political alliances have reshaped the political landscape in Melaka, making the narrow victories recorded in the 2021 state election a less reliable benchmark for predicting the outcome of the upcoming polls.
Thirteen seats, most of them Malay-majority constituencies, were won by margins of fewer than 1,000 votes in 2021, when Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) contested all 28 seats.
However, the political dynamics will be different this time despite 17 multi-cornered contests in the Nov 14 election, according to Ilham Centre analyst Hisomuddin Bakar.
He said the BN-PN alliance could consolidate Malay votes, potentially turning previously narrow victories into more comfortable wins for the Malay unity pact, including in mixed constituencies.
Another factor is that most of the 17 multi-cornered contests involve Bersama, a PKR splinter party formed earlier this year.
BN-PN alliance changes the electoral landscape
Hisomuddin said cooperation between BN and PN would give the alliance a structural advantage in the 21 seats won by BN in 2021.
"The BN-PN cooperation will give a structural advantage in the 21 seats BN won in 2021. The unifying of these two political forces, who used to be rivals, could produce an organised consolidation of Malay votes.
"The results of the 2021 Melaka state election, particularly seats won by narrow margins, can no longer be used as an absolute benchmark for assessing the contest this time," he told FMT.
However, he cautioned that the alliance might not necessarily ensure a smooth transfer of votes among all component parties, particularly PN's Wawasan.
The party is primarily made up of former Umno leaders, including Hamzah Zainudin, Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, Ronald Kiandee and Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik.
Hisomuddin said the defection of these leaders from Umno to Bersatu following BN's loss of federal power in 2018 remained a sore point among Umno grassroots members, potentially affecting their willingness to support Wawasan candidates.
"An agreement at the leadership level does not necessarily translate into a smooth transfer of votes among voters," he added.
Wawasan is contesting Bemban, a mixed constituency won by Bersatu in 2021, and Kesidang, a DAP stronghold.
Under the BN-PN alliance, BN is contesting 23 seats while PN is fielding candidates in the remaining five.
PH, which has fielded 24 candidates, has also formed an electoral pact with its former component party Bersatu, which is contesting seven seats. The two parties will face each other in three constituencies.
Larger electorate and young voters
Hisomuddin identified two other major differences from the 2021 election.
The Melaka electorate has grown from 495,195 to 687,697 voters, while the country has recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, which contributed to the low voter turnout in 2021.
The previous election was also held just a month before the voting age was lowered to 18 and automatic voter registration came into effect.
He said young voters would be a key segment for all parties, describing them as more dynamic and unpredictable, with weaker political allegiances than traditional voters.
"Their support is heavily influenced by current trends, their perception of candidates, issues that hit close to home and the effectiveness of campaign communications.
"Therefore, any party still has a chance at staging a surprise if they field the right candidate, present an attractive campaign message, and employ an approach that truly understands the aspirations of young voters," he said.
Vote splitting could decide marginal seats
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia academic Mazlan Ali said the multi-cornered contests involved more marginal seats than in 2021, with the results potentially depending on how votes were split.
He said parties with poor electoral records could face defeat, while the new political alliances could also threaten the positions of incumbent assemblymen, particularly in constituencies not held by BN.
"These constituencies have many undecided voters. Some may only decide at the last minute, depending on current issues, political messaging or public sentiment," he said.
