Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled ahead as votes were counted on Wednesday, but his failure to secure a parliamentary majority means he will need to draw rivals into a coalition to remain in power.
With turnout reaching a record high in Tuesday’s election and nearly 86% of votes counted, Israel’s three main broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties to win 53 seats in parliament. The opposition bloc led by rival Gadi Eisenkot was projected to secure 48 seats.
Both blocs remained short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, while parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to win 19 seats.
“Maybe it’s hard to say it or to see it, but he’s the winner,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu, describing the prime minister’s political comeback as a “resurrection”.
Bushinsky said the paradox was that an election which denied Netanyahu a parliamentary majority may nevertheless have restored his political primacy.
Despite the fallout from the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct 7, 2023, and criticism over security failures exposed by the attacks, Netanyahu secured the support of an unexpectedly clear majority of Israeli Jews and emerged at the head of the largest bloc.
Netanyahu survives without a majority
Netanyahu’s achievement was less about winning outright than surviving politically, said Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer.
His bloc lost seats and fell short of the number needed to govern alone, while Eisenkot’s camp also lacked a viable path to power without support from Arab parties.
“He won by not losing. He managed to survive,” Citrinowicz said.
Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister while Israel’s president decides whom to ask to form a government. Despite lacking a parliamentary majority, he retains the advantage of incumbency and a possible route to forming a coalition.
Arab parties gain influence
The election’s biggest disruption came from Israel’s Arab electorate, whose unprecedentedly high turnout gave Arab parties potentially decisive influence over the formation of the next government.
Arab Israelis, who make up 21% of the population and are Palestinian by heritage but Israeli citizens, could hold the balance of power between the rival blocs.
“The Arabs have never been in a position where they held this much power,” said Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator.
Netanyahu’s opponents face a difficult path to removing him. Forming a government would likely require direct or indirect support from Arab parties, a prospect that could complicate efforts to secure the backing of potential right-wing partners such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.
Israeli political analysts identified two broad possibilities: a wider unity government led by Netanyahu or another election.
Bushinsky considered a unity government the most realistic option, particularly if US President Donald Trump pressed Netanyahu to bring rivals into the administration and sideline far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The United States is Israel’s most important ally, and Trump could use his public backing for Netanyahu as leverage to encourage a broader coalition, Bushinsky said.
If negotiations fail, Israel could remain politically deadlocked and return to the polls. Several analysts said another election might further strengthen Netanyahu rather than change the outcome.
Citrinowicz said the stalemate left Netanyahu better placed than Eisenkot to become prime minister. With another election unappealing to most parties, he viewed a Netanyahu-led unity government, potentially including Eisenkot or Bennett, as the most plausible way forward.
Iran remains central to political battle
Since the Oct 7 attacks, Israel has fought wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and launched joint attacks with the United States against Iran.
In a post-election speech to cheering supporters, Netanyahu called for a “strong right-wing national government” and described Israel’s military gains as a historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat.
“Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission,” he said.
Trump had urged Israelis to keep Netanyahu in power so the two leaders could “finish the job” in Iran. He later said Netanyahu had done “very well” and credited his own endorsement with helping the prime minister.
“It might be winning or tie. The tie is sort of considered a win in that case because it’s a big chess match,” Trump said.
Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in office could put Israel’s security challenges, particularly Iran, at the centre of negotiations over the next government. A renewed confrontation with Tehran could strengthen calls for national unity, although any escalation would depend heavily on Washington.
Eisenkot, 66, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, sought to frame the election as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership.
In a message to Israel’s security chiefs and public servants, Eisenkot said Netanyahu now headed a transitional government that had lost public confidence.
“Stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you,” he said.
Netanyahu entered the election facing a long-running corruption trial, opposition to an independent inquiry into the Hamas attacks, escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank and a bitter dispute over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.
