Pakatan Harapan (PH) will need a voter turnout of at least 80% to remain competitive in the Negeri Sembilan state election, according to a coalition leader, who said the political landscape has changed significantly since the last polls.
The leader, who declined to be named, said PH’s strong performance in the previous state election was largely driven by its cooperation with Barisan Nasional (BN), which enabled the coalition to secure many seats.
“The results in the last state election were largely because we joined forces with BN. That helped us win many seats,” the leader told FMT.
Changed political landscape
The leader said the situation has shifted following BN’s electoral understanding with Perikatan Nasional (PN), with PH expected to lose support among Malay voters.
“It is not the same now. Malay votes will go to BN and PN. Even if Malays are unhappy with the infighting in PN, they will still vote for BN. PN’s votes will not transfer to PH,” the leader said.
The leader added that PH also faces challenges in attracting younger Malay voters, as PAS continues to hold strong influence over the demographic.
“Young Malays are still strongly on PN’s side because of PAS. They are still inclined towards religious sentiment because they do not like elitist politics,” the leader said.
Turnout seen as decisive factor
The leader said the changing electoral dynamics mean that even seats held by senior PH leaders can no longer be regarded as secure.
“If you look at the numbers, even a high-profile candidate like DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook is not safe. His majority was more than 2,000 votes under the previous electoral arrangement when PH was working with BN.
“On paper, it looked like a comfortable win, but that was under a different political arrangement,” the leader said.
The leader stressed that voter turnout would be a decisive factor, saying PH could no longer rely on the electoral conditions that contributed to its previous success.
“We need our supporters to come out because we can no longer depend on the electoral dynamics of the last state election,” the leader said.
Contest for all 36 seats
BN and PN have reached an electoral understanding for the Negeri Sembilan election, with BN contesting 25 seats and PN fielding candidates in 11. PH is contesting all 36 state seats.
Polling for the Negeri Sembilan state election will be held on Aug 1.
