Umno’s growing confidence ahead of rumours of possible state elections may be justified, with analysts pointing to divisions within rival political camps and the emergence of new political movements as factors that could work in the party’s favour.
According to analysts, tensions between Bersatu and PAS, along with the launch of Bersama by former PKR leaders Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, have further fragmented Malaysia’s political landscape.
Fragmented political landscape benefits Umno
Merdeka Centre co-founder and programmes director Ibrahim Suffian said current political developments could strengthen Umno’s momentum ahead of any potential state elections in Johor and Melaka.
He said the growing rivalry between PKR and Bersama, coupled with a possible split between Bersatu and PAS, could position Umno as a stabilising force within the federal political landscape while allowing the party to reinforce its grassroots presence.
Ibrahim said Umno’s confidence is also rooted in its long-established grassroots network, loyal support base and leadership strength, particularly in Johor under Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
“This environment is uniquely beneficial for Umno ahead of the next general election. The severe fragmentation of the Malay electorate across multiple competing parties naturally works to the advantage of an established incumbent,” he said.
He added that early state elections could provide a strategic advantage, as voters would be more inclined to focus on local issues rather than dissatisfaction with the federal government.
Johor remains a key stronghold
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow and coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme Lee Hwok Aun shared a similar view, noting that Umno was likely relying on a reasonable level of voter satisfaction with the state administration.
“Umno-BN is in the Johor government on its own. Johor is Umno’s birthplace and remains its stronghold, enjoying voter goodwill compared with other states,” he said.
Lee said Hamzah Zainudin’s departure from Bersatu and the strain in relations between Bersatu and PAS had further fragmented Malay politics, potentially improving Umno’s electoral prospects.
Ibrahim also pointed out that standalone state elections typically record voter turnout rates that are between 10 and 15 percentage points lower than those of general elections, particularly among minority communities.
However, he noted that Umno’s confidence could still be influenced by unresolved questions surrounding the nomination of a future prime ministerial candidate.
Election timing could shape outcomes
The analysts believe that if state elections are held separately, Umno could secure a majority of seats in the state assemblies.
However, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow and coordinator of the Regional Economic Studies and Malaysia Studies Programmes Francis Hutchinson cautioned that combining state elections with a general election could reduce Umno’s advantage.
He said Pakatan Harapan supporters would likely turn out in larger numbers when parliamentary seats are also being contested.
“We saw this in 2022, when Umno performed very well in the March state election but underperformed in the general election later that year,” he said.
