Umno’s determination to remain a central force in the next government, despite its diminished standing, could destabilise any administration it joins after the 16th general election (GE16), analysts say.
They said the party could still seek influence over leadership, parliamentary seats and power-sharing arrangements even if it no longer had enough numbers to dominate.
Coalition ties face fresh tensions
Political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said reluctance among stronger rivals to give up leadership could create friction in any pact they seek to form with Umno.
Wong said Umno may rely on its political flexibility to regain relevance, but cautioned that coalition partners trying to outmanoeuvre one another would only risk destabilising the next government.
‘None of the coalitions trusts one another. But they would compromise to form a government with rivals depending on conditions,’ he told FMT.
The concerns come amid mixed signals over Barisan Nasional’s (BN) political alignments at federal and state levels.
BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) remain allies in the federal government, but their relationship has been strained by BN’s willingness to work with Perikatan Nasional (PN) in certain states.
At the recent Negeri Sembilan state election, BN abandoned its unity alliance with PH to work with PN and take control of the state government.
In Melaka, BN has said it is keeping its options open, with state chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh saying the coalition is prepared to negotiate with any party ahead of the upcoming polls.
In Penang, meanwhile, an Umno leader called for the party to continue working with PH in the state. This prompted Penang PAS to question Umno’s sincerity and accuse the party of placing its political ambitions ahead of the Malay-Muslim unity agenda.
However, on Sunday, BN chairman and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi ruled out further cooperation with PH once Parliament is dissolved, saying he saw no possibility of such a collaboration.
Wong said the shifting calculations suggested that post-election cooperation would be driven more by transactional interests than trust.
‘Stability only comes when political parties accept each other’s coexistence and stop hoping to outsmart or shortchange each other,’ he said.
Leadership and seat sharing could prove crucial
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said seat and power sharing would be the main stumbling blocks to any BN-PN pact.
He said state elections could serve as useful testing grounds for strategic cooperation ahead of the next general election, although the national political landscape would be far more complex.
‘The question of who leads and how power and seats are shared will be the real test of the durability of any BN-PN cooperation,’ he said.
However, Awang Azman said the risk of instability was not unique to Umno, as any government built on a loose pact without a clear post-election structure would face similar pressures.
He said the key issue would be whether the government formed after GE16 could balance the competing interests of its component parties and coalitions over policy, positions and power sharing.
‘A government with clear agreement on key policies, division of responsibilities and dispute-resolution mechanisms would have a relatively stronger basis for stability,’ he said.
Awang Azman said this made Umno’s own electoral performance crucial, as a stronger mandate would give the party greater autonomy and influence in shaping any post-GE16 government arrangement.
Political instability could carry economic costs
Tan Peck Leong of Universiti Teknologi Mara said political instability could carry an economic cost by creating policy uncertainty for investors.
He said investors often consider governance benchmarks such as the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, which include political stability, rule of law and regulatory quality, before committing capital.
‘Financial markets can react almost overnight, while longer-term investors may delay or reconsider projects because factories and infrastructure involve commitments that cannot easily be reversed,’ he said.
Tan said instability could affect expectations over policy direction, approvals, incentives and regulatory continuity.
‘The economy will eventually adjust, but adjustment takes time. Confidence may take years to build, yet it can be damaged very quickly,’ he said.
