The United States can only determine with certainty that approximately one-third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal has been destroyed as the conflict enters its fourth week. According to sources familiar with US intelligence, the status of another third of the inventory remains unclear, though targeted bombings have likely damaged or buried many of these weapons in underground tunnels and bunkers.
This assessment, which provides a more measured view than recent public statements, indicates that while a large portion of Iran’s weaponry is currently inaccessible or destroyed, Tehran still retains a significant inventory. Experts suggest that the Iranian military may be able to recover or repair buried assets once the current round of fighting ceases.
The findings also apply to Iran’s drone capabilities. Intelligence suggests that only about a third of these unmanned aerial vehicles are confirmed to have been neutralized, leaving a substantial portion of the fleet potentially operational or hidden.
Contradicting public claims on military degradation
These intelligence findings stand in contrast to recent public remarks made by President Donald Trump, who suggested on Thursday that Iran had very few rockets left. However, the President also appeared to acknowledge the persistent threat posed by remaining Iranian assets to future operations, particularly regarding the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.
The President noted that even a small percentage of remaining missiles is considered unacceptable, as a single strike could cause catastrophic damage to high-value naval vessels. Reports indicate that the administration is currently weighing whether to escalate the conflict by deploying troops to Iranian shores along the strait.
In response to queries, a Pentagon official stated that Iranian missile and drone attacks have decreased by approximately 90% since the war began on February 28. Furthermore, Central Command claims to have damaged or destroyed over 66% of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities, focusing on the industry that creates the weaponry rather than just existing stockpiles.
The challenge of underground facilities
A primary difficulty in assessing the damage lies in the nature of Iran’s military infrastructure. Much of the arsenal was stockpiled in underground bunkers before the war started, making it difficult for aerial surveillance to confirm total destruction. While Israeli military officials estimate that 70% of Iran’s launch capacity has been neutralized, they privately admit that eliminating the final 30% will be significantly more difficult.
Evidence suggests that Iran continues to demonstrate its ability to fire at regional targets. Recently, the country launched 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones at the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, Iranian forces recently displayed new capabilities by firing long-range missiles at a military base in the Indian Ocean for the first time.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently acknowledged the challenges posed by Iran’s extensive tunneling, comparing the network to those used in other regional conflicts. He emphasized that the military is methodically hunting down these assets, though he did not provide specific figures on the total percentage of the arsenal currently neutralized.
